German Chancellor’s Last-Ditch Attempt at Diplomacy Fails To Sway Putin, mid-February 2022

The takeaways from Der Tagesspiegel’s (The Daily Mirror) February 16, 2022, article of German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz’ meeting in Moscow with Russian President, Vladimir Putin, are:

Despite Putin’s willingness to hold discussions with various world leaders on the Ukraine crisis, it is obvious from the arguments he put forth to Scholz that he had already made up his mind to invade Ukraine.

Supposedly, the main issue was Ukraine’s accession to NATO and to the EU. However, as Scholz noted in remarks to the press, that issue had been taken off the agenda for the foreseeable future, which Putin surely was aware of. No longer able to claim that provocation, although he kept it alive by demanding a written, binding commitment to the fact, he fell back to claiming that Russia had the right to intervene in eastern Ukraine, where, he maintained, genocide was occurring. In order to justify such an intervention, he obviously orchestrated with the Russian Parliament to pass a resolution requesting him to recognize the separatist Donetsk and Luhansk districts in eastern Ukraine as “people’s republics,” which the lower house did on February 22. That was all the pretext he needed to execute the plans he clearly had drawn up well in advance, during supposed military training exercises.

One final argument Putin made was that Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine were “one people” that should not be divided by the West.

For his part, Scholz was attempting a last-ditch diplomatic effort to reach a peaceful solution by stressing that Ukraine’s accession to the western alliances was off the table. But, at the same time, he warned Putin about officially recognizing the separatist districts; nor did he accept Putin’s claim of genocide being committed there. He stressed that mutual security could only be achieved with, rather than against, Russia.

On that score, however, Scholz recognized that what was needed was for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to work out reliable security guarantees in Europe, the Baltic states, Poland, and the non-NATO member, Finland, all of which invoke the Russian threat. 

On February 16, 2022, the German newspaper Der Tagesspiegel reported on German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’ visit to Moscow to meet with Russian President, Vladimir Putin, in an effort to resolve the crisis between Russia and Ukraine diplomatically. Citing the special relationship that Germany and Russia have enjoyed historically, Scholz wanted to talk with Putin to find out ultimately what the Russian President really wanted.

Earlier, based on U.S. intelligence reports, Germany had called for its citizens to leave Ukraine. But, just as Scholz was to begin his visit with Putin, Moscow was declaring a partial withdrawal of its troops at the conclusion of military training exercises. In fact, Der Tagesspiegel, reporting that the spokesperson for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Maria Zakharova, had written on Telegram that “the 15th of February 2022 will go down in history as the day of the failure of western war propaganda,” noted that “the West has disgraced itself.”

After their face-to-face discussion, Scholz and Putin briefed the press. In its article, Der Tagesspiegel made a point of taking a swipe at Russia’s having banned the German news broadcast network, Die Deutsche Welle, from broadcasting in Russia, which, in turn, had meant that a representative from the network would not be able to travel with Scholz to Moscow. However, the latter restriction was rescinded after Der Tagesspiegel had reported on the issue, and it was a reporter from Die Deutsche Welle who presented the question to Putin, “Will there be war in Europe?”

After repeating Scholz’ remark about being of a generation for which war in Europe had become unimaginable, and that it was up to the heads of state and governments to prevent it, Putin brought up the war that NATO had “unleashed” in Yugoslavia. In somewhat of a face-off between the two, when Scholz pointed out that that was to prevent genocide, Putin retorted that that was what was happening now in eastern Ukraine. At the time, Scholz let Putin’s argument slide but later rejected it in a statement he made when leaving the Kremlin.

As for the situation in eastern Ukraine, Scholz reminded Putin that NATO and the EU had warned against official recognition of the separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine, while NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said it was a “blatant violation” of Ukrainian sovereignty and of its national territory. The EU-External Representative, Josep Borrell, had stressed that by so doing, Russia would be breaking the Minsk Agreements. [Translator’s note: According to an internet search, the lower house of the Russian Parliament passed a resolution on February 22, 2022, requesting Putin to recognize the two districts as “people’s republics.”]

Further according to Der Tagesspiegel, Putin made clear that Ukraine must waive NATO accession with no further expansion to the east by NATO, both of which he wanted in a written, binding commitment. Also, Ukraine was to be neutralized, which, Der Tagesspiegel observed, would allow Putin automatically to extend Russian influence and annex the country to his sphere of influence. Der Tagesspiegel pointed to remarks Putin had made a year ago that Russians, Ukrainians, and Belarusians were “one people” that ought not to be divided from one another by the West.

As far as Germany’s energy supply was concerned, Putin stated that the Germans should thank their former chancellor, Gerhard Schröder, because thanks to his “deployment of Nord Stream 1, the Germans get gas five times cheaper than from other providers.” For his part, Scholz made clear, without saying so openly, that, in case of war, the pipeline [Translator note: a reference to the recently completed Nord Stream 2 pipeline] may become an “investment ruin.”

Besides the Ukraine crisis, Scholz had addressed other critical issues with Putin, such as the end of the rights organization Memorial, the expulsion of Die Deutsche Welle from Russia as well as the handling of the incarceration of Aleksey Navalny. He demanded a revival of the Petersburg Dialogue, in order to reduce tensions between Germany and Russia, saying, “We need a space for open and honest dialogue.”

As for Ukraine’s NATO accession, Scholz noted that everyone knew quite well that it wasn’t on the agenda nor did he expect the topic “to face us again as long as we are in office.” Scholz had made a similar statement the day before in Kyiv, according to Der Tagesspiegel that “the question of membership in alliances is practically non-existent. Therefore, it is somewhat peculiar to observe that the Russian government is making something that, practically [speaking] is not on the agenda, the subject of major political problems.”

On the other hand, Der Tagesspiegel’s article noted, Ukraine had incorporated into its constitution a goal of NATO membership in 2019, which had provoked Putin. Zelensky had responded to the above remark by Scholz that NATO membership was not on the agenda with the suggestion that “perhaps the issue of the open door (of NATO for new members, editor’s note) is, so-to-say, still a fairy tale or a dream for us.”

According to Der Tagesspiegel, Scholz’ double strategy of diplomacy and threatening posture (i.e., stating openly the extent of the “serious” measures) had been closely coordinated with French President, Emmanuel Macron, Polish President, Andrzej Duda, and U.S. President, Joe Biden. At the same time, Scholz recognized that what was needed was for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) to work out reliable security guarantees in Europe, the Baltic states, Poland, and the non-NATO member, Finland, all of which invoke the Russian threat. With this in mind, however, Scholz stressed that mutual security could be achieved, not against, rather only with Russia.

Into the mix of issues that were now pressing the ‘traffic light coalition’ [Translator note: The name given to the coalition government of the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the Alliance 90/The Greens, whose parties’ traditional colors are red, yellow, and green, respectively, matching the color sequence of a traffic light (Ampel) (Wikipedia)] are: getting to two percent of GDP for rearmament and modernization of the Bundeswehr; coming to terms with fulfilling its participation in the nuclear sharing concept, given that the withdrawal of U.S. nuclear weapons was no longer open to debate; and needing to replace the Bundeswehr Tornados, preferably with the F-35 U.S. fighter jet.

A full translation of Der Tagesspiegel article can be found below.

https://www.mappr.co/thematic-maps/countries-with-nuclear-weapons/

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