My Comment:

It turns out that strongmen, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, are in need of each other’s help in order maintain a facade of bravado in the face of the dire financial shortcomings in their economies. In the case of Russia, more than 30 years after the fall of the Soviet Union, it remains an energy-rich (oil/gas)-driven windfall economy, which, in order to maintain it under the Ukraine invasion-related sanctions regime, must continue to operate. Türkiye, on the other hand, is finding its hard currency supplies depleted, basically because of poor financial policy in the wake of the pandemic.

To encourage Erdoğan to break sanctions, Putin has agreed to allow Türkiye to pay in rubles for an unspecified amount of Russian natural gas deliveries rather than in dollars. This, plus the influx of hard currency from Russian oligarchs and tourists as well as the possible transfer by Putin of $15 billion for the Akkuyu Nuclear Plant (cf. http://www.akkuyu.com/index.php?lang=en), should help restore Turkiye’s hard currency supply.

As for Putin, he is able to continue pumping natural gas via the TurkStream Pipeline, while staging a political coup against his NATO and EU adversaries by bringing a NATO ally over to his side. At the same time, he is pressuring Erdoğan to turn his back on the West and look East, within the context of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Which of these two erstwhile strongmen will win this tug-of-war?

End of comment

Savvas Kalenteridis, writing for Greek language internet news site, News Break, filed the following story on August 12, 2022.

It is clear that Türkiye has become the new lifeline of Russia, which is affected by the embargo, while efforts are being made to find solutions to facilitate the payment or the transfer of Russians’ money.

The meeting of the leaders of Russia and Türkiye a few days after their meeting in Teheran is considered of key significance in the two countries’ relations. The two leaders discussed for four hours and during the discussions, when there were difficulties and disagreements, the pertinent experts of the two sides were also called in order to facilitate the discussions.

Before we mention the main topics which were discussed, let us note that after the meeting there was no joint press conference. A very brief communique was issued, while Erdoğan, who is usually talkative with the reporters in returning from such a trip, this time was exceptionally laconic.

The cancellation of the joint press conference is attributed by Russian and Turkish reporters to the state of Erdoğan’s health, while other interpretations were also given, such as that the two leaders did not want to reveal to the reporters on which topics they disagreed or that Erdoğan did not want to appear to his western “friends” as the person who saved Putin.

In the concise joint communique, it mentions that in the meeting emphasis was given to increasing the volume of trade, to enhancing cooperation in various sectors, to the full application of the Istanbul Agreement, including the uninterrupted export of Russian grain and fertilizer products as well as to topics which concern Syria and Libya.

The only tangible result of the meeting

In any case, on the basis of the information that they leaked, the only tangible result of the meeting was the signing of the memorandum of understanding of economic cooperation, which was signed by [Turkish] Minister of Trade Mehmet Muş and Russian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandr Novak. Although its contents were not known, Erdoğan characterized this agreement as a road map for the relations of the two countries in as much as it sets as a goal a 100-billion-dollar trade volume, as Erdoğan had agreed with Donald Trump. In any case, it is to be noted that for the year 2021 the volume of trade transactions was 33 billion dollars, increasing by 57%, while a further increase is expected this year.

The event brought to mind that there was a meeting of the heads of the central banks in Sochi, who, it is noted, had met two weeks earlier in Sochi. Although the details have not been announced concerning the topics that were discussed, it is clear that Türkiye has become the new lifeline [translator: literally, “breathing duct”] of Russia, which is affected by the embargo, while there are attempts to find solutions in order to facilitate the payment or the transfer of the money of Russians. Yes, Turkish analysts are noting that Istanbul is called to compete with Dubai, which is more experienced in these issues.

In any case, the attempts that are being made so that Türkiye will constitute a bypass of the sanctions are not only accommodating Putin but constitute a life raft for Erdoğan himself. Besides the billions that are flowing into the Turkish banks from Russia, either with the deposits of Russian oligarchs or with the granting of citizenship for [a] $400,000 [translator: investment, such as buying a home], or with the influx of millions of Russian tourists to the Turkish resorts, if the Russian capital anchors in Istanbul and Putin transfers to Türkiye the $15 billion for the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant, this will give a deep breath to Erdoğan, who, by the way, released a record [translator: I can find no supporting items to confirm that this should be taken literally or metaphorically] in the Arab countries and as a beggar is asking for money. Only from Saudi Arabia is he waiting for $20 billion.

“Grateful to Türkiye”

Another tangible outcome, for Russia this time, is the two sides’ decision for the payments for natural gas in part to be in rubles, something that will not please, at all, the sworn friends and supporters of Türkiye in Washington. Concerning energy resources, Putin, since he stressed the uninterrupted supply of natural gas to Europe from TurkishStream, he did not miss taunting the Europeans, saying, “They should be grateful to Türkiye.”

Reciprocating, Erdoğan stated that “one of the best aspects of this visit is this. We agreed on the ruble with Putin,” noting that this would also strengthen the two sides and mentioning another contribution as a mechanism for avoiding sanctions: “There exists, also, Russia’s MIR [credit] card [system]. It continues to be accepted in five of our banks. So the Russians can be merchants and the tourists pay comfortably…”.

On the issue that burns Türkiye, that of the Kurds in Syria, Erdoğan did not get what he wanted, i.e., a green light for an incursion into Syria. Instead, Putin imposed on Erdoğan to abandon his Western friends and to approach Assad. In the first phase, this would be at the level of heads of the secret services of the two sides, and, who knows, we could see Erdoğan embrace Assad, whom he has slandered for years as a murderer and… autocratic leader he the democrat (sic).

As is becoming perceptible, a parallel goal of Putin’s is to force Erdoğan to accept policies that increase the West’s suspicion of him and to distance Türkiye from NATO and the EU. For this, Putin invited Erdoğan to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit, which will take place in Uzbekistan in September.

Let us recall that the Shanghai Cooperation Organization is a Eurasian political, economic, and security organization that was founded in 2001, initially by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kirghizia, and Tadzhikistan, while later Uzbekistan, India, Pakistan, and, lastly, Iran joined.

Certainly, Türkiye’s turn toward Eurasia and Erdoğan’s participation in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit will cause a still bigger headache for the fanatical supporters of Türkiye in Washington. In any case, in the Kremlin there exists the institutional conviction that Turkiye, if it comes to a critical moment to decide, will stand with the West and not with Eurasia, at least not in the immediate future.

As for the question of whether Erdoğan will save Putin or Putin Erdoğan, even the two sides know that the fall of the one leader and the ascent of the other will not bring the deluge [translator: i.e., the end of the world].