Russian and Arab Money Won’t Save Erdoğan, Turkish Economist Says, mid-August 2022

The Turkish internet news site, DEMOCRAT HABER, on August 14, 2022, posted the remarks in a transcript format of a YouTube program during which one of the discussants maintained that the influx of money from Russia and/or Saudi Arabia could not overcome the effects of the current inflationary cycle in the Turkish economy.

The remarks, as posted, follow [translated from the Turkish by Lahbrais O’Colileain/loc]:

Economist Atilla Yeşilada made the comment that “Even if billions of dollars came from Russia or Saudi Arabia, as long as a comprehensive stability package isn’t opened, it will blow up inflation. Russian-Arab money won’t save Erdoğan.”

Yeşilada, who participated with Dr. Artunç Kocabalkan on the YouTube program, said, “Even more money can come to us from Russia. Russia has the expectation from us ‘to help get around sanctions,’ but Saudi Arabia has no expectation related to Türkiye. Let us say that $50 billion came from Russia. Will this win President Tayyip Erdoğan an election? It won’t. It won’t get a single vote. We are generating 80% inflation; the money came, and you doubled your spending, what happens with inflation? Inflation rises to 160%. Because, in Türkiye, expenditures have exceeded the current account deficit, a big share of the money Putin is giving goes to finance the current deficit. In addition, a big share of the money that will come goes to names close to power.”

Yeşilada continued by noting:

“A financial chess game is being played between Erdoğan and [Kemal] Kılıçdaroğlu [translator: General Secretary of the Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi/CHP (Republican People’s Party), the main opposition party of Erdoğan’s Adalet ve Kalkima Partisi/AKP (Justice and Development Party)]. Kılıçdaroğlu is telling Erdoğan, ‘Face the consequences in your own period, you won’t be able to submit the invoice for the decisions you made in the period after I win the election.’”