This post is a straight translation from the Greek language internet news site, Newsbeast. The article was written by Panagiotis Flokis and carries a date of 10 November 2023.

Israel is proclaiming that it “will cause Hamas to disappear from the face of the earth” after the bloody attack of October 7, however, its greatest fear is the reaction of Hezbollah.

The Shiite organization, which is based in Lebanon, can confirm worst-case scenarios and “repeat the greatest slaughter of Hebrews since the Nazis,” inasmuch as it has more than 150,000 missiles, with many being sophisticated and able to defeat the Israeli defense. At the same time, it numbers approximately 100,000 members, of which many are veterans of guerilla warfare and have experiences from the battles in Syria.

Characteristic of the situation that prevails in the Israeli army is how it sent 100,000 soldiers to the border with Lebanon and converted many kibbutz-Hebrew farming communities – into military outposts.

Nevertheless, it doesn’t seem to be sufficient, with an Israeli military commander stressing to Bloomberg that “Hezbollah can capture all the northern borders anytime,” if it were to decide to get involved in the war.

Moreover, Hezbollah is the only power of the Middle East that has “beaten” Israel on the field of battle. Specifically, in the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war that lasted 34 days. The result can be interpreted as an Israeli victory, but in reality, it was a draw and a long-term victory for Hezbollah.

Then, it was agreed that civilians and residential areas should not be targeted, but that hostilities concern only military targets. Indicative, this agreement came about after Israel lost approximately 120 soldiers and the Shiite organization almost 250 fighters, a little more than double. Until then, no force had suffered so many losses in a war with Israel, since the Israeli army was historically more effective. [Apparently meaning that in the past, Israel was able to be more deliberate by pinpointing its strikes on specifically military targets rather than having to take out pockets of terrorists who were using civilian areas as cover for their strikes.]

“Now Our Every Movement Is Watched”

Hezbollah, contrary to Hamas, does not have an “expiration date,” since the Palestinian organization [i.e., Hamas] can lose support if a Palestinian state is established or the Palestinians’ living conditions are improved. Instead, the Lebanon organization [i.e., Hezbollah] serves the interests of Iran and will endorse the protection of the Shiites, who, on the one hand, are a minority in the Muslim world, but with significant influence.

In line with this, it is officially recognized in Lebanon and legally participates in making more than just political decisions, so any expulsion of it automatically means war in one state and not only in one organization. [As I understand this paragraph, the author is suggesting that any attempt on the part of the Lebanese government to expel Hezbollah would result in civil war among the various governing factions.]

So far, its leader, Hasan Nasrallah, is observing a wait and see position with Hezbollah for it to carry out sporadic attacks in the north of Israel, using mainly mortars and other short-range weapons. International analysts, however, are not excluding further involvement in the war, especially if Teheran judges that its interests are being threatened to include its natural egress to the Mediterranean Sea.

Israeli major Ariel, speaking to Bloomberg, summarizes the situation as follows: “It is necessary for us to reevaluate the way with which we are defending the borders. For the first time, they are firing missiles as well as mortars. Hezbollah was always studying us. But now it is watching our every movement, even with drones.”