Following is a November 12, 2024 post by Dmitri Medvedev, former President of Russia and currently Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, to Telegram. In this post, Medvedev is reacting to statements by the Chairman of Germany’s conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Friedrich Merz, vowing, if elected, to supply Ukraine with long-range cruise missiles. Medvedev’s cocky personality, which lends itself to a bravado that seeps into braggadocio, permeates his posts as he denigrates and belittles all those whom he considers enemies of Russia. Medvedev warns that interference from Germany will only lengthen the time until Ukraine is defeated and will most likely lead to “a bad scenario.“

Included in this post is an article from the German internet news site, tagesschau, posted on October 14, 2024, analyzing the actual statements made by Merz to ARD (Association of German Broadcasting Corporations) host Caren Miosga on the issue of providing Ukraine the Taurus long-range missile. Points made by Merz in his interview were: contrary to present German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who has nixed giving the Taurus missiles to Ukraine for fear of being drawn into the war, Merz would do so, but based on a European-wide decision; Europe must become less dependent on the United States and be prepared to take a leading role in the event of a Trump victory in the U.S. Presidential election; and, Germany must substantially increase its defense budget, since “Russia at present is arming at a rate that in five to eight years the country may be in the position to attack NATO territory.”

[Note: This post was in the works prior to the current U.S. Administration’s decision to allow Ukraine to launch U.S. long-range ATACMS missiles into Russia. This may or may not affect Germany’s near-term plan not to supply their Taurus long-range missiles to Ukraine.]

Medvedev’s post [translated from Russian by LOC] begins:

An autumn of escalation has begun for European leaders after Trump’s victory. The goal is to drive the conflict with Russia to a point of no return. Now, the Frenchman crows on the subject of supporting Kiev should America withdraw, now NATO commanders try to be clever, how to further wage war against us more actively.

And now candidate for chancellor of Germany Merz made an announcement about an ultimatum to Russia. Either call an end to the SMO [Special Military Operation] or on the next day I’ll give the “khokhols” [Medvedev uses a derogatory nickname for Ukrainians, the khokhol being a topknot/forelock of hair with the rest of the head shaved] Taurus German missiles. It is understandable that such “ultimatums” carry a pre-election character. It is understandable that these missiles are essentially capable of changing nothing in the course of military actions. Their delivery is only a means to lengthen the agony of the Bandera regime [i.e., Nazi; cf. https://the-dragon-is-slain.com/2024/11/09/russian-security-council-deputy-chairman-questions-a-trump-presidencys-ability-to-overcome-the-system/ for an explanation of the Bandera reference]. But now the risk of the conflict’s transitioning to the most dangerous stage of strikes with cruise missiles is being increased many times over. And our president [Putin] warned about this.

Speaking in general, it is simply surprising to what degree the current generation of European politicians wants to drag the war onto their territory. Moreover, to the clear joy of the Americans and against the wishes of their own individual peoples. The inoculation of the Second World War has completely ceased to be effective. The experienced, yes and simply smart leaders of Europe have gone the way of history. Nonentities with an inflated self-worth have come on the scene. Meaning, a bad scenario remains most probable.

The tagesschau article [translated from German by LOC] follows:

Chancellor Scholz ‘no’ to the delivery of the Taurus long-range cruise missiles for Ukraine still applies. CDU Chairman Merz would answer the controversial question another way – and is demanding a European decision.

CDU Chairman Friedrich Merz would deliver Taurus long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine, which is constantly under fire from Russia, but only under certain conditions. “I wouldn’t do it just like that,” said Merz in the Caren Miosga ARD broadcast.

“I would say, if the bombings don’t cease, then the first step is to lift the range limitation. And the second step is that we deliver the Taurus.” Merz expanded, “Then the ball is in (Russian President Vladimir) Putin’s court, how much further he wants to escalate this war.”

Merz wants a European decision on the Taurus

Taurus German cruise missiles, with a range of 500 kilometers [approx. 310 miles] are not yet being delivered to Ukraine. Chancellor Scholz had spoken out against it many times. He sees the danger that by doing so, Germany and NATO could be drawn into the war. Merz stressed, a decision on the Taurus delivery should happen at the European level.

Germany and the U.S. are not yet allowing Ukraine to launch delivered weapons against targets on Russian territory. With them the Ukrainian government wants to attack Russian military installations from which Putin is permitting the bombing of civilian locations and persons in Ukraine.

Criticism of Scholz Course

The stoplight from Chancellor Scholz (SPD/Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands/Social Democratic Party of Germany) is missing a strategic consideration of the options in Ukraine policy. The government is letting Putin in on all the details. It even argues openly over its various positions on concrete next steps.

Europe as a whole must urgently become more independent of the U.S. regarding helping Ukraine in the sense of collective security. In view of a possible victory of the Republican Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential elections the beginning of November, Europe must prepare itself for a leading role.

CDU Candidate Wants Strong Rearmament on account of Putin

Merz announced, in the upcoming Bundestag election contest he will campaign for significantly higher defense spending. “We must do it,” Merz said. The Bundeswehr [Federal Armed Forces] budget must be increased. By 2028 at the latest, the billion-dollar special fund for the Bundeswehr will be used up. [By] 2029 a gap of 30 billion euros must be filled.

Also, it could be that still significantly more money will be needed – and the expenditures must sooner lie at three percent of the gross domestic product instead of today’s two percent. Russia at present is arming at a rate that in five to eight years the country may be in the position to attack NATO territory, Merz said.

Germany and the West were mistaken when it was assumed that Putin would not attack Ukraine. “We dare not be mistaken yet again.” With a view to a possible Russian attack on NATO , Merz said, “The price (of a new mistake) would be very much higher.”