The Greek newspaper, Kathemerini, in its internet edition for April 16, 2023, featured an article by Manolis Kostidis based on the opinion of Turkish political analysts that Turkiye’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), at the helm of which is Islamist conservative Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, may use the identities of the victims of the earthquake in early February near Nurdaği in Turkey’s Gaziantepe Province to pad the results to its favor in the country’s presidential elections this year.

The title I have given this post is a play on the words of the title of the 19th century novel written by Russian author Nikolay Gogol, Dead Souls, in which the penniless hero hits on a plan to engrandize himself by purchasing for a pittance from landowners the names of the deceased peasants for whom the landowners were still required to pay taxes and to then use the peasants (as if they were a living, viable commodity) as collateral to gain loans from the bank. That is, to put ‘dead souls’ to work for monetary or, in this case, political profit.

[The original Greek-language article, translated by LOC, follows:]

Fears Lest Even The Dead of the Earthquake Will Vote

“Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is determining the pre-election agenda in such a way that, in the case of his defeat, long term, to again be the winner and to soon return to power.”

“Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is determining the pre-election agenda in such a way that, in the case of his defeat, long term, to again be the winner and to soon return to power.” This is the prediction that was shared with “K” [“Kathemerini,” the Greek daily] by one of Turkey’s most significant political analysts, who has contact with both the government camp and with the members of the opposition, so that he is respected by both sides. He stresses that today in Turkiye everyone is working out the two scenarios. 60% are predicting victory for Kemal Kiliçdaroğlu and 40%, re-election of Erdoğan.

The polls are showing that the future of Turkiye will be determined in the second round of the presidential elections, which will be conducted on May 28, since according to all research, neither Erdoğan nor his opponent will achieve the coveted 50% +1 in the first round.

In any case, win or lose, it is said that the president of Turkiye is the one who will determine the future of the country. “Erdoğan for sure is fighting for the victory in these elections. He is improving his percentages and is already closing in on Kiliçdaroğlu, who is leading by from two to five percentage points. However, as an experienced politician, the president of Turkiye is prepared for all eventualities, even of his defeat,” the political analyst mentions.

“In the case that he wins again, he will continue his work with many problems in the economy and he will still have against him a dissolved opposition with six parties that will make time to find a new leader. They will need years to regroup and to face Erdoğan in the presidential elections of 2028! The same source maintains that Erdoğan appears to be leading the opposition to where he wants to trap it. Should he lose, the victor Kiliçdaroğlu will receive an earthquake-racked country with a disintegrated economy and huge deficits, with the cash registers of the central bank empty. He will have to take emergency hard measures. He may be forced to appeal to the IMF. At the same time, the Turkish president is promising residences to the earthquake victims which will be delivered within one year. If Kiliçdaroğlu does not succeed in delivering them – which is also most probable – then he will be found facing the people’s dissatisfaction.”

Still, even if he loses, Erdoğan will leave a torpedoed economy that will make it very difficult for the next government.

Where the opposition is in danger of trapping itself is its promise to change the presidential system that requires a 50%+1 for the victor. “This will be a gift to Erdoğan,” the analyst explains. “He cannot admit today that he has made a mistake and change the constitution. Nevertheless, Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party has a firm 34%-36%. All the polls are showing this. Nor has this changed the very difficult economic circumstances. Only the opposition will change the constitution in the middle of the economic crisis, which, when it comes right down to it, all consider that it is given that the president of Turkiye could squeeze Kiliçdaroğlu for early elections, go out into the streets perhaps, and together with the municipal elections, win the lone majority. Thus he will return as powerful prime minister since a percentage over 34% will be able to bring him the absolute parliamentary majority.”

Opposed to this analysis, the columnist of the Oksijen [Turkish e-]newspaper, Mehmet Yilmaz, maintains that “Erdoğan does not have a rabbit in his hat, does not have the means to make a classical pre-elections campaign to stop the impoverishment of his people. Because he has perceived this, he will try to win time and bring the elections to the second round. He is calculating that the conservative voters who will not vote for him in the first round, will not go to the ballot boxes in the second round, and he considers that this is sufficient for him to win.”

Anyway, most political analysts consider that the Turkish president foresees not only his next steps but also those subsequently. The polling companies are predicting a ‘derby.’ This is also the reason that many doubts are being expressed about how the earthquake victims as well as millions of citizens who have given up their homes and are living in the western provinces will vote and no one knows how and where they will exercise their right to vote.

Officially 50 thousand persons died from the February 6 earthquake. Nevertheless, residents of the 11 provinces and many members of the rescue teams maintain that the number of the dead is multitudinous. The fear that is expressed is that there exists the possibility “for the dead to vote.” “In the areas affected by the earthquake, in the debris many identities were found. We will have to prevent these identities being used by some others. Currently, if someone takes this identity, which looks like that of the real owner, it will be possible to vote in his place,” the general secretary of the non-governmental organization [NGO], The Vote and Beyond, Ahu Sun, maintains in her interview with Oksijen. The Turkish authorities refute these allegations and mention that the names of the victims of the earthquake will not be found in the electoral rolls. Nevertheless, this applies for the official data. The opposition is examining the information concerning the dead who have not been recorded.

[The picture of Erdoğan: Reuters archived photos, Manolis Kostidis, April 16, 2023]